A developing story: The morning news brought a growing consensus for a bomb having caused the plane to break up in the air. This was not based on potential evidence at the crash scene, but by elimination of the other possibilities.
Was the downing of the Russian passenger plane done to push Putin into making a mistake, perhaps scuttling the Vienna deal and the Minsk accords and, perhaps even the Iran nuclear deal as well?
If Putin reacts to this outrage, seemingly perpetrated by US allies operating under protection of NATO, what can Obama do if Putin decides to push back hard?
The choices are simple, Russia turns the other cheek, Russia hits back openly or surreptitiously or this takes the world to DEFCON 1 in a flash.
The only real evidence involves impossible errors, the initial story of radio calls never made, emergency landings planned for in an imaginary world, confirmed by Al Jazeera with Egyptian officials that never existed.
Then there is the video of the “ISIS shoot down,” easily debunked as a “shoot down” video but an extremely telling piece of evidence.
Team leader Jim Dean was quick to point out that the video of a plane flying up to 500 miles per hour is hard enough without timing the plane being overhead at the exact moment of a catastrophic mishap. This is where issues of “structural failure” are quickly dismissed.
Additionally, larger missiles like the BUK, which we are told that Kiev is furnishing to ISIS, leave a contrail that can be seen for hours from a hundred miles away in the clear skies of Sinai or Ukraine. There was no such contrail, no visible signs of a missile attack.
Wreckage evidence under cursory examination has to be set aside as there is a long history of this kind of evidence being photoshopped as with 9/11 or doctored as with the Dutch investigation of MH17.
This leaves a bomb planted at Sharm el Sheikh airport, one that could be accurately predicted, not just based on time and altitude but both and perhaps speed as well or even remotely activated through penetration of one of the planes communications systems. This requires a high degree of sophistication, setting off a bomb directly over a video crew.
The key to our investigation was location of the video crew’s position. It required backtracking from the crash site, following the suggested descent time tied to the radar data supplied, based on speed, altitude and deceleration algorithms.
This is an example of how wide open the territory is at the video site, with no one around
This backtracked us approximately 24 miles to the only reachable location, an abandoned Wadi with direct highway ties to well used infiltration routes to Jordan, routes routinely used by Israeli and Saudi special operations units working with terrorists in Sinai.
Then again, we return to the issue of the extreme sophistication of the bomb, it we are talking about a bomb, which is more and more likely. Familiarity with advanced avionics are key, and this cuts the list of potential players down to few, perhaps even one only.
From here, we look at the issue of “team egress,” how those who planted the bomb, again we note “if it was a bomb,” at the Sharm el Sheikh airport and the additional team responsible for the video.
Both groups would have to get out of Egypt quickly, which can only be done by water. The reason for this is simple.
ISIS receives half of its supplies through Turkey. The rest are brought through Israel to Jordan, primarily through Aqaba, where barges take them on the very short run, only a few miles, to the rail head inside Jordan which runs them quickly to the Syrian and Iraqi borders and directly to ISIS units in the field.
Thus, the boats needed, the crews, the paid off customs officials, Jordan, Egypt, plus the special operations teams, Israel or Saudi for instance, if those are who can be considered, if a bomb is the real culprit here, make this all more than possible but probable, highly probable.
Then we look to the story that Al Jazeera planted, which held up Egypt closing her border crossings and ports looking for agents of foreign security services who would have been otherwise sought. Al Jazeera is controlled by the government of Qatar, very much a party to the funding of ISIS and operations inside Syria against that nation and now Russia as well.
Why? There were two big reasons. First is that to video the plane blowing up required knowing when the bomb was going to trigger and approximately where, to be in a position to get the video shot. Gordon and I can tell you that is not something that a rump group of jihadis could do, only a major intelligence agency (or several).
The video also eliminated a possible missile strike as there was no plume. There would have to have been one as the missiles that go that high have to carry a good bit of fuel to deliver 30 pounds of steel shrapnel for a proximity fuse one like the BUK, large and impossible to sneak around in the desert, even with a large sheet over it.
That left only a bomb. So next was a quick update on security at the resort town, which gets a log grade due to the huge number of foreign workers going in and out on all the resort construction projects and the history of bribes to circumvent any regulation imaginable. This included infiltrating a team in to do something nasty, but where getting the out is still a trick.
So that had us concentrating at looking how we would have gotten in to shoot the video, if it is real. First up was the location which thanks to our un-volunteered partner Google Earth we were able to find the approximate position required to match up to the camera angles and the radar recordings of where then plane was struck. Then came doing the math on the debris coming down where it did.
We have that spot marked above as the probable location, and just above it to the right the approximate position of the plane to fit the radar reports and camera angle. There is still an anomaly on the cell phone camera being faked as even at full zoom we do not see how an I- phone could hold a plane at 31,000 feet in frame, being hand held. From my camera experience with my $500 fluid head it would have taken some professional equipment to record this, and then dumbed down to look like a cell phone camera.
More analysis will confirm, or not, hence we are not claiming “who done it”, just a “most probable at” this point. If we were working for a government it would be asking for an early assessment on the most likely suspect. We are sharing some of the analysis behind what would typically be done, the logistics analysis.
Next came looking for how a video team would have gotten and, and then even harder, getting out. We first focused on the two Israel border crossings to the East as they were closest and Israel is always a top suspect in operations like this, especially where children are killed as they have a lot track record for going it.
But the low traffic between the two countries at these crossings is riskier for being noticed, going in, and more so, going out. So although we did find roads from the east that allowed access from Israel, we backed up and looked for alternates. We then spotted the main east-west road from Aqaba, Jordan, with lots of traffic where it is easy to blend in.
That road was a good bit south of the crash so we next had to zoom quite a bit to find a viable road going north…and found one, a lightly use one, straight as an arrow through what appeared to be a few abandoned facilities, the perfect set up to have put a team in the day before to be ready in the morning. We are showing one of those below.
Wadi Geryed, Sinia, pre-staging overnight position for a video team – one we would have picked with some “view blocking” facilities
Aqaba is the city version of Rick’s Cafe from the movie Casablanca, one of the most active espionage transit centers in the Mideast. You have the huge CIA facility in Jordan, and the Saudi one, too. And then Israel’s border border ends their, also.
The ferry from Jordan was the most attractive route as it connects to the main east-west highway with lots of traffic to blend into and where any customs issues can be quickly resolved with a few hundred dollars. The major Intel orgs have fast lanes to get through these places when needed.
That completed our finding a very good way for a team to have gotten in, but where getting out was still tricky as after an event like this you can face road blocks and dragnets. So you have to have multiple exit routes, and more importantly, some time to exit the area before a major security alert goes out. The Aqaba exit would have been the quickest and the best, to be out of the country ASAP.
The map below shows that route in more detail so you can see how closely all three countries are at that point, Jordan to the right, Israel’s Elat north, and Egypt on the left where the main highway is from their port.
The last big clue we had was the confusion with the early report of the pilot reporting “technical difficulties” and requesting to land in Cairo, not a big deal initially in terms of what was to come.. That communication was widely published and ran all day while the focus was on getting to the plane wreckage. When the video alleged to have been from ISIL popped up it was generally thought to be bogus because we knew they have nothing to shoot down a plane at that altitude. We ran it anyway with qualifiers on it.
But by late afternoon, the Egyptian officials “confirmed” that their had been NO pilot communication or emergency signal sent. That meant the earlier report was the the screw-up of all times, a firing squad offense…inconceivable to see how such a mistake could be made.
But now we are viewing that as a cover story to give an infiltration team the time needed to get out before a terrorism strike report locked at the nearby borders, which would have included Aqaba. So next the focus went over to tracking down who had planted the early bogus story of the pilot communication .
Gordon’s quick search, about one minute, turned up that Al Jazeera story first broke the story, from an unnamed Egyptian official (totally pulled out of thin air) or, as is more than likely, was manufactured on the need to create a temporary window allowing terrorist cells or special operations squads to “get out of Dodge” undetected.
This story was never meant to last and Al Jazeera obviously didn’t care that they would be found either utterly incompetent or complicit. Those “in the know” have long been aware that Al Jazeera is an intelligence agency front.
There was, as we now know, no Egyptian source. This was part of the cover up.